Just because ingredients are present today that doesn’t mean thunderstorms are a guarantee. That said, thunderstorms look more likely than not and if they form, they are going to be strong ones. Large hail is the biggest threat today and heavy rain is likely to also occur with the strongest storms. There is enough turning in the atmosphere that an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Here’s why storms aren’t a guarantee though. It has to do with how cool the airmass is behind the cold front that moved through on Independence Day. We need at least a few hours of sunshine to break the “CAP” and tap the instability present in the atmosphere. In the slideshow below, you see what’s called convective inhibition (CINH if you go poke around on computer model websites). Notice in the slideshow below how the western edges of the CAP are forecast to erode between the late morning and middle afternoon. This is assuming that clearing occurs.

If the clouds hold through the late morning into the afternoon the CAP won’t erode and storms are going to be much less likely to form. While that isn’t the most likely scenario today, it is a possibility and I need to make you aware of that.

If we assume the storms are going to develop, which we should plan on, there is potential for the storms to have some very large hail today from the afternoon through the late evening as the slideshow above shows. The largest hail stones could be between 1.5 and 2.5″, particularly over the plains in the evening.