(COLORADO) – As November begins, Colorado has seen above-normal temperatures and so far, no snow in sight. This warm, dry start has led some to wonder whether a late first snowfall could mean a busier winter season ahead or, conversely, a mild one. But that long-standing myth doesn’t hold up to the data.

Let’s take a look at the numbers and statistics. 

On average, Colorado Springs sees its first measurable snowfall around October 19, while Pueblo typically gets its first flakes by November 5. This year, we’re already past both of those dates without any snow. But does that really tell us anything about what kind of winter lies ahead?

To find out, the data was pulled from snowfall records from a consecutive five years span; comparing each season’s first snow to its total accumulation. In Colorado Springs, for example, 2021 saw a very late first snow, while 2020 had an early one. Despite those differences, both seasons ended with below-normal snowfall totals. Let’s take a look at the next three years within the same data, snowfall timing hovered close to average; yet total accumulation still varied by about 30 inches.

The same holds true for Pueblo: in 2020, a late first snow was followed by an above-normal season, while an early start another year led to below-normal totals.

The takeaway here is that there’s no consistent correlation between when the first snow arrives and how snowy the rest of the winter will be. A delayed start doesn’t mean winter is canceled; it’s simply part of Colorado’s natural variability.

Right now, we’re setting into a La Niña pattern, which often trends toward below-normal precipitation in parts of the state. Still, anomalies are always possible, and Colorado winters have a way of delivering surprises. 

Our first snowfall will come eventually, but for now, November’s mild stretch is just another weather twist in Southern Colorado’s story.