COLORADO SPRINGS — Forecasting snow is – in a word – challenging, especially early and late in the season, for a myriad of reasons. Those include atmospheric temperature, characteristics of the snow being wet and heavy cement-like stuff, recent temperatures and the warmth being held on pavement and in the ground.

This storm is no different.

Here’s an example of where several different weather model suites are for their forecasted amounts for the airport as of Thursday morning. Yikes!

Is that possible? Certainly – but there is a lot to it.

Given recent weather and the fact that temperature will be within a few degrees of freezing overnight Friday into Saturday, there will certainly be melting of snow after it falls. The weight of the new falling snow will also tend to compact snow that falls and sticks early on. The timelapse below from Woodland Park shows how impacts on roads are likely to change over time through the evening. Expect snowpack/slush under bursts, but then improving road conditions as they rates lighten up.

Road conditions are likely to change by the hour given the time of year.

As of mid-morning Thursday – here’s my official forecast – based on what is most likely to occur. We may need to end up being a bit more aggressive and farther south for the mountains southwest of Pueblo – Valerie Mills is in for Robert this afternoon and will make needed adjustments.

Areas that see a rain/snow mix, or even a switchover to all snow along the river around Pueblo and areas east may wake up to some white on the grass Saturday morning, but that would likely melt off pretty quick.

We need the water, we know that!