(COLORADO) — We had a decent run at snowfall in early January that brought needed precipitation and snowpack to most of the state. However, the second half of January was warm and dry, which in turn contributed to some water supply deficits headed into February, according to the Colorado water supply report from National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS)

As of January, we ended the month with about 85% of median snowpack for January. However, according to NRCS’ report, that won’t be enough to improve our water supply and streamflow runoff this year is expected to be below average given current numbers. NRCS said a very dry fall will likely lead to reduced runoff due to soil moisture deficits.

To put into perspective how we think about water supply and whether we have enough, you have to think of water supply like a bank. We put deposits into the bank through precipitation events like rainfall events and especially in winter with snowpack. But dry conditions, water use, evaporation rates and transpiration from plants, along with other factors, act like withdrawals from this bank and we can eventually end up in a deficit. So for us to have a dry fall, that can definitely lead to a deficit that snowpack alone can not make up entirely.

Although the news seems bleak, the NRCS states that there is still hope for more moisture. As the chart below shows, we still haven’t met the peak for our snowpack season. In fact, we typically reach our peak for snowpack in April, so there are still two months to go to make up this moisture deficit.

Courtesy of NRCS

So far, to start the month, we are making up for the deficit in a hurry. With the recent rounds of heavy wet snow at the beginning of February, we have made up some of our snowpack, especially in the Southern Mountain regions. As of January, the snowpack for the Southwest Mountains was 76% of average, the Upper Rio Grande was 66% of average, and the Arkansas River Basin was 85% of average. However, as of Feb. 13, following several rounds of very moist snow storms, things are looking a little bit better as shown below, with Colorado now at 96% of average statewide.

Time will only tell if we can make up that deficit. Stick with the FOX21 Storm Team as we continue to monitor the state’s snowpack.