(SOUTHERN COLORADO) — Meteorological fall (Sep-Nov) has been quiet thus far, but that may change as we head into the upcoming weekend, as a storm eyes Colorado somewhere in the Oct. 18 to Oct. 21 timeframe. The storm will dive south out of the Pacific Northwest and intensify over southern Nevada and Arizona early in the weekend.

The FOX21 Storm Team will work to figure out by late Wednesday or Thursday morning how the system will evolve and move into early next week. This is really important for our local forecast!

What we know

Fire danger increases late in the workweek ahead of the storm

The storm is stronger than recent waves

We will turn sharply cooler

The mountains in southwest Colorado will get snow

We’ll have a chance of rain and snow across the rest of the viewing area

What we’re still working on

Timing of cooler air

Evolution/movement of the storm through the weekend

How the movement is going to affect our moisture chances locally

When the slider is to the right, you’re looking at the American computer model. When it is to the left, you’re looking at the European model forecast of precipitation potential for this weekend.

The FOX21 Storm Team expects by late Wednesday or Thursday morning we’ll have a pretty good handle on the specifics of the weekend. On Monday morning (6-7 days out) it’s a pretty good reminder that forecasting is a process. Here’s a look at how it typically goes.