Chances of asteroid impact change: what it means

(INTERNATIONAL) — We’ve been following reports of an asteroid that scientists said was going to make impact with Earth in 2032. But the news has now changed for the better.

In January, asteroid 2024 YR4 was reported to have a one in 88 chance of impacting the Earth. Then, on Feb. 17, the chance of impact almost doubled to a one in 32 chance. This was notable because not only did the chances almost double, but according to NASA, the asteroid became the most risky asteroid in the history of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies Sentry Risk Table.

However, NASA now says they took more data and measurements recently, and as of Saturday, Feb. 22, the chance of impact has been lowered to one in 360, or a 0.28% chance. This brings 2024 YR4 down from a three on the Torino Hazard Impact Scale, where it would merit attention, to a one, meaning no threat at this time.

In addition, the report indicated that this chance could actually go down to zero by the end of February as more orbital data comes in.

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