(COLORADO) – The seasonal drought outlook was recently released, and it provides a glimpse into how conditions might evolve in the coming summer months.

According to the latest projections, much of Colorado, notably some of our southern counties, is leaning toward remaining in a drought as we move into the summer season. FOX21 Storm Team Meteorologist Nic Temple spoke with Dr. Russ Schumacher, Colorado State Climatologist, about how these outlooks are put together and what we can expect in the months ahead.

“The outlook is leading towards warmer than average temperatures and not a lot of signal for precipitation,” said Dr. Schumacher.

He emphasized that while long-range forecasts point toward dry conditions, much of Colorado’s relief depends on the north American monsoon thunderstorm patterns that typically develop later in the summer.

“It’s the wet season coming up in July and August, and a lot of what we may face is crucial with those storms,” Dr. Schumacher said.

In terms of creating a seasonal outlook, Dr. Schumacher explained that curating a seasonal drought outlook is challenging, as it depends on multiple facets, but one being the broader-scale patterns like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.

He explained that because we have transitioned into an ENSO neutral phase, it makes predictability a tad more challenging.

With conditions closely monitored throughout the summer, the weekly drought monitors will continue to be an important resource for assessing the status of dry areas across Colorado, while the seasonal outlook gives us a look into what we could expect.